It’s a bit early for this but the polling site 538 projects by the narrowest of margins that Joe Biden will beat Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election.
This projection is based on 1,000 simulations of how the election could go. Biden wins in 504 of the simulations, Trump in 491. In five of the test runs, there is no Electoral College winner, so the decision would be made in the House of Representatives.
The House by a narrow margin is controlled Republicans.
According to the site, its forecast “is based on a combination of polls and campaign ‘fundamentals,’ such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to ‘call’ a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win.”
All polls indicate Biden will win the popular vote by a comfortable margin, but as the U.S. is not a direct democracy, that is basically irrelevant. And the election is still five months away, but it’s not too soon to be hopeful.
Read: Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (538)
HEADLINES:
Republicans enter the upside down: Unity with Trump (Politico)
Senate Republicans block legislation to codify IVF access (The Hill)
‘Brazen corruption’: Donald Trump is selling policies for a second term to the highest bidders (Independent)
A new class of influencers supportive of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump are helping shape the immigration debate. They portray migrants in the country illegally as dangerous and part of a plan to grow the ranks of Democratic voters. (Reuters)
Trump has long said federal bureaucracy needs to be "brought to heel" and has a chilling plan to bend it to his will if he wins in November. “In the hands of a president who is not committed to democratic norms, taking control of the bureaucracy is a tried and tested way to work toward authoritarian government," one expert said. [HuffPost]
Wholesale prices unexpectedly fell 0.2% in May (CNBC)
US and Ukraine sign 10-year security agreement at G7 summit (Guardian)
G7 leaders agree to lend Ukraine billions backed by Russia’s frozen assets. Here’s how it will work (AP)
Russia financial system shaken after U.S. imposes new sanctions (WP)
A Palestinian Professor Spoke Out Against the Gaza War. Israel Detained Her. (NYT)
‘Dyson spheres’ were theorized as a way to detect alien life. Scientists say they’ve found potential evidence (CNN)
Drone footage shows just how close sharks get to unaware swimmers, part of a plan to stop attacks (WP)
A New Book About Plant Intelligence Highlights the Messiness of Scientific Change (New Yorker)
An account of Jesus as a boy is decoded from an ancient papyrus scrap (WP)
Here’s how Apple’s AI model tries to keep your data private (Verge)
How Big Tech Is Killing Innovation (NYT)
New Florida Bill Allows Guns To Start Businesses (The Onion)
Thank you for this, David! It’s so disturbing that a few people I know watch fox & think the other cable channels CNN & MSNBC are no good. I hope our democracy survives!