As Goes Omaha...

...so goes the nation (and maybe why Tim Walz is on the ticket)

While most of us would probably like to think that our country’s electoral map is vastly different from what it looked like in 1860 on the eve of the Civil War, the fact is that politically it really hasn’t changed much at all.

It looks different (below) because the two major parties have exchanged places and philosophies such that now their colors have completely reversed positions on the map. But though what was red (Democrat) is now blue and what was blue (Republican) is now red, it’s still fundamentally a matter of North vs. South.

The country is riven between the entrenched liberal majorities in the Democratic enclaves vs. the entrenched conservative majorities in the Republican enclaves.

On many levels, unfortunately, we have never stopped fighting the Civil War. It’s worth remembering that even in 1860, with the states so divided they were about to take up arms against each other, there were many in the North who did not oppose slavery or states rights — the two main issues precipitating the conflict.

Nor was everyone in the South pro-slavery or anti-Union. It’s just that when war breaks out, you have to choose sides lest you get caught in the crossfire. The point is that all of the states contained significant minority party populations, even if the majorities were firmly in charge of their state capitol — and therefore their electoral votes.

Of course, that is exactly what our imperfect democracy is designed to preserve — the rights of minorities — as well as providing a peaceful alternative to open warfare over our differences, no matter how deep. Theoretically, we should be able to solve these disagreements gracefully through fair and free elections. But that theory may be as much at risk now as at any time since the Civil War era.

Which brings us to this year’s election. The current electoral map is more or less locked in place with mostly deep blue or deep red majorities, just as in 1860, except for the seven swing states. Three of those — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — make up the “blue wall” states in the North. The other four —Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina — are within what is broadly considered politically as the South.

Should Harris win the “blue wall” and Trump the other four, which is an entirely plausible outcome, the two candidates would end up in a deadlock of 269 electoral votes, each one short of the total needed for victory.

But there is one more wrinkle and it probably has something to do with why Tim Walz is on the Democratic ticket.

In the case of an electoral tie, the decision of who wins would be tossed over to the House of Representatives, which is narrowly controlled by the Republicans. But that would only happen if Trump can claim all 5 of Nebraska’s electoral votes, including the state’s 2nd District (Omaha and its suburbs) which has one of those votes.

Unlike most states, which have a winner-take-all allocation system, Nebraska and Maine allocate their electoral votes by district. Tim Walz grew up in a small Nebraska town deep in Trump country. In a razor-close election, Democrats are hoping that might make a difference.

Should Harris and Walz win the so-called “blue dot” 2nd district, that would break the tie nationally and they would prevail by the slimmest of margins, 270-268, making them the nation’s next President and Vice-President.

So how is the 2nd District leaning? According to the polling site 538, Harris currently holds a narrow five-point lead over Trump, among registered voters in the district, despite trailing Trump by 17 points statewide. Her lead is subject to change, of course, and is probably best therefore viewed as well within the poll’s current margin of error.

A Harris victory in November would be in many ways similar to Lincoln’s in 1860, as the country seems almost as deeply divided now as it was back then. Alas, lest we forget, 164 years ago Lincoln’s victory did not prevent but helped provoke the outbreak of war..

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Yesterday’s tragic school shooting in Georgia that claimed four lives and injured nine more, was the 45th already this year in the U.S. They are occurring at the rate of more than one per week. It is an outrage and we need to hold our leaders accountable for banning assault weapons entirely. This will require Congress and the President to take action. Kamala Harris has pledged to support that effort; Donald Trump opposes it.

Additional reading.

HEADLINES:

• How Trump and Harris differ on the economy (AP)

• Kamala Harris now leads in US polls but state-level data puts race on knife-edge (Guardian)

• Kamala Harris Pares Back Biden’s Capital-Gains Tax Proposal (WSJ)

• Georgia school shooting live updates: Two students, two teachers killed at Apalachee High School, 14-year-old in custody (NBC)

• As Israel’s Rifts Widen, Netanyahu Remains Defiant (NYT)

• As U.S. readies last cease-fire push, Netanyahu digs in on border demands (WP)

• The main United Nations agency for Palestinians said it was making good progress in rolling out a polio vaccine to children in Gaza, but called for a permanent ceasefire to ease humanitarian suffering.  (Reuters)

• US accuses Russia of election disinformation campaigns. What to know (Al Jazeera)

• Biden administration hits Russia with sanctions over efforts to manipulate U.S. opinion ahead of the election (NBC)

• Russia Unleashes New Strikes as Ukraine Prepares for Cabinet Shake-Up (NYT)

• Heat wave scorches Southwest, West as wildfire concerns increase (Axios)

• Elon Musk’s Starlink Agrees to Block the X Social Network in Brazil (NYT)

• An au pair, a husband’s affair and a double homicide (WP)

• How inflation fell without deep recessions (Economist)

• Titanic divers find long-sought statue, signs of accelerating decay (WP)

• China Services Expansion Cools in New Sign of Economic Weakness (Bloomberg)

• China’s Campaign to Infiltrate America Is Worse Than You Thought (TNR)

• China Needs More Factory Robots. Can It Build Its Own? (WSJ)

• Few have tried OpenAI’s Google killer. Here’s what they think. (WP)

• ‘No Way To Prevent This,’ Says Only Nation Where This Regularly Happens (The Onion)